Загрузка данных
if LSTM_AVAILABLE:
ens_score = 0.40 * oos_xgb + 0.40 * oos_lgb + 0.20 * oos_lstm
print(f"\n {DIM('Ensemble: XGB 40% + LGB 40% + LSTM 20%')}")
else:
ens_score = 0.50 * oos_xgb + 0.50 * oos_lgb
print(f"\n {DIM('Ensemble: XGB 50% + LGB 50% (LSTM skipped)')}")
# ── Threshold search + vectorised backtest ───────────────────────────────
print(f"\n {CYAN('⚙')} [5/5] Threshold search + vectorised backtest...")
best_r = None
for long_thresh in [0.05, 0.08, 0.10, 0.12, 0.15, 0.18, 0.20, 0.25]:
for short_thresh in [-0.05, -0.08, -0.10, -0.12, -0.15, -0.18, -0.20, -0.25]:
sig = np.zeros(n, np.int8)
sig[oos_mask & (ens_score > long_thresh)] = 1
sig[oos_mask & (ens_score < short_thresh)] = -1
n_trades = int(np.sum(np.abs(np.diff(sig.astype(int)))) // 2)
if n_trades < 20: continue # must have at least 20 trades
changes = np.where(np.diff(sig, prepend=sig[0]) != 0)[0]
cap = capital
equity = np.full(n, capital, dtype=np.float64)
wins = losses = 0
gw = gl = 0.0
for i in range(len(changes) - 1):
eb = changes[i]; xb = changes[i + 1]
d = int(sig[eb])
if d == 0:
equity[eb:xb] = cap
continue
ep = c[eb]; xp = c[xb]
sz = (cap * 0.25) / ep
pnl = d * (xp - ep) * sz * (1 - FEE) ** 2
cap = max(cap + pnl, 1.0)
equity[eb:xb] = cap
if pnl > 0: wins += 1; gw += pnl
else: losses += 1; gl += abs(pnl)
equity[changes[-1]:] = cap
total_ret = (cap - capital) / capital * 100
peak = np.maximum.accumulate(equity)
dd = (equity - peak) / peak * 100
max_dd = float(np.min(dd))
n_days = len(equity) // 1440
if n_days > 2:
dl = np.array([
np.diff(np.log(equity[i*1440:(i+1)*1440] + 1e-10)).sum()
for i in range(n_days)
])
sharpe = float(dl.mean() / (dl.std() + 1e-10) * np.sqrt(365))
else:
sharpe = 0.0
tt = wins + losses
wr = wins / tt * 100 if tt > 0 else 0.0
cal = total_ret / abs(max_dd) if abs(max_dd) > 0.01 else 0.0
pf = gw / (gl + 1e-10)
r = dict(
sharpe=round(sharpe, 3), ret=round(total_ret, 2),
max_dd=round(max_dd, 2), calmar=round(cal, 3),
pf=round(pf, 3), trades=tt, win_rate=round(wr, 1),
final=round(cap, 2), equity=equity, signals=sig,
long_thresh=long_thresh, short_thresh=short_thresh,
)
if best_r is None or r['sharpe'] > best_r['sharpe']:
best_r = r
col = GREEN if r['sharpe'] >= 2.0 else (YELLOW if r['sharpe'] >= 1.0 else RED)
sh_str = f"{r['sharpe']:+.3f}"
print(
f" {col('↑')} Sharpe={col(sh_str)} "
f"Ret={r['ret']:+.1f}% MaxDD={r['max_dd']:.1f}% "
f"Trades={r['trades']:,} WR={r['win_rate']:.0f}% "
f"Calmar={r['calmar']:.2f} "
f"[L>{long_thresh} S<{short_thresh}]"
)
if best_r is None:
print(f" {RED('✗')} No valid threshold found. Try more data or looser filters.")
return {}
# ── Save best params ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CONFIG_DIR.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
params = {